Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

985
FXUS64 KAMA 220439
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1039 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Current observed temperatures have dropped much quicker than all
model guidance has anticipated once again this evening.
Temperatures have already fallen into the upper 20s for a few
locations, in particular for areas across the north central to
northeastern Panhandles. With that being said, have lowered
temperatures below the previous forecast update. Admittedly, the
lows may not be cold enough for some locations tonight, especially
for areas where the dew points will drop down to 20 or less
tonight.

Muscha

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 515 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Another night with light winds and clear skies is forecast for the
Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Another night with below freezing
lows is likely tonight and NBM lows seem to be a bit too warm once
again, just like the last two nights. Have made minor adjustments
to the ongoing forecast for the rest of tonight.

Muscha

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 204 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

- Warmer than average temperatures are favored through the
  forecast period for the vast majority of the Panhandles.

- Will be watching two systems around Christmas time (the 24th and
  the 26th-27th). The potential for precipitation is very
  uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 204 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

The benign weather pattern that has been in place across the
southern plains will persist through Sunday. However, this will
be the limit of this pattern as a weather system will work its way
from western CONUS into the Great Plains during this time. During
the tail end of the benign weather pattern the skies will be sunny
for through most of Sunday with increasing clouds only arriving
very late in the day. Winds will be on the lighter side and remain
out of the south to southwest leading to warmer than normal
temperatures. It is possible that the warmest spots on Sunday may
even reach 70, feeling very much like Autumn.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 204 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Monday through next weekend has a high chance of being an active
weather period with a series of weather system moving eastward
from western CONUS across the Great Plains.

The first of these system passes across the northern plains on
Monday setting up a leeside low that extends to the southern
plains. This setup will cause a weak cold front to push across the
panhandles shifting the winds to northerly. This weather system
then has a high chance of bringing warp around moisture across
the southern plains. The entire panhandles has a high chance of
seeing mid to high level moisture leading to cloud cover. However
only the eastern panhandles has a moderate chance of seeing low
level moisture arrive during this time. If this low level moisture
does arrive then it may cause foggy and drizzly conditions during
Monday night to Tuesday morning. The ample cloud cover and
northerly winds will bring a drop to the temperatures with them
becoming seasonable for the first time in a long time.

Tuesday has a high chance of this weather system continuing to
deepen as it pushes eastward out of the Great Plains. This would
see the moisture gradually depart with the day becoming
progressively more sunny. This would see the foggy and drizzly
conditions of early morning end by the mid to late morning hours.
The northerly winds have a high chance of persisting through the
day with temperatures remaining near seasonable even with
increasing sunshine.

Wednesday (Christmas day) a short lived ridge has a high chance of
passing across the southern plains bringing mostly sunny skies
and slightly warmer temperatures to the panhandles.

This short reprieve should come to a fairly abrupt end come the
evening of Christmas as the next weather system ejects out of the
mountains across the southern plains. There is still a fair amount
of uncertainty in the exact path that this weather system will
take. Currently the best chance are this system passing across
the northern panhandles to just to the north of the panhandles.
This would introduce low chance for the panhandles to receive
some light rainfall. However it is also possible that the system
passes such that the panhandles only receive dry air and no
rainfall. What is more certain to occur is that a cold front
associated with this system will pass across the panhandles late
on Wednesday to early Thursday. This would bring cooler air back
across the panhandles returning the temperatures back to normal
for this time of year.

For the remainder of the week the confidence drops on how the
weather pattern will unfold. Currently the best chance are that
another weather system ejects out of the mountains into the
southern plains on Friday through Saturday. The big question is
how strong will this system become and will it be able to source
moisture given it quick arrival from the previous system.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours with clear
skies and winds mainly around 10 kts or less.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                32  69  34  56 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  25  64  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              27  68  32  55 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  32  69  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              24  68  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  26  69  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               25  68  34  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 23  65  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  22  64  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                27  70  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                29  64  35  53 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   32  66  33  53 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                27  64  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              26  65  39  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...05