Amarillo, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

148
FXUS64 KAMA 301941
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
241 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday across the
combined Panhandles.

- There is a chance for rain and accumulating snow beginning
  Thursday night. However, confidence is low regarding the
  location of greatest accumulations and where snow is favored, if
  it does occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A shortwave trough will approach the Panhandles early this evening,
and with sufficient lift and modest moisture from the Pacific, there
is a 10-20% chance for rain this evening across the northeastern
combined Panhandles. Rain totals will most likely stay under 0.05".

Temperatures warm into the mid-60s to mid-70s on Monday as a ridge
builds over the Panhandles. An upper-level longwave trough will move
into the Western US Monday night, and with strengthening westerly
flow over the central Rockies, a surface low will begin developing
in southeastern Colorado. Winds are expected to strengthen through
Monday night as they turn gradually from southeasterly to southerly
to south-southwesterly.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Tuesday morning, a dryline will be set up across the western TX
Panhandle and it will quickly mix eastward through the morning as a
surface low in eastern Colorado rapidly strengthens. Surface winds
will strengthen through the morning and afternoon, and in the
afternoon the 850mb and 700mb winds will undergo more pronounced
strengthening. As a result, expecting 45-55 mph wind gusts across
much of the western and northern combined Panhandles. Additionally,
current guidance has the 300mb jet streak situated such that the
Panhandles will be in the right exit region. This subsidence could
help mix down some 55-65 mph wind gusts, particularly in the
northwestern combined Panhandles. Given the strong winds with warm
and dry conditions across the Panhandles, widespread critical fire
weather conditions are expected. As such, a Fire Weather Watch has
been issued for the combined Panhandles. A slightly more detailed
discussion will be written in the Fire Weather section below. Winds
will turn westerly Tuesday evening and gradually weaken through the
night.

The shortwave trough that was responsible for Tuesday`s weather will
move off to the northeast. There are hints that another shortwave
trough will round the base of the Western US trough and cause
another surface low to develop in northeastern New Mexico Wednesday
afternoon. This could lead to elevated to critical fire weather
conditions, except with weaker winds and lower RH values than
Tuesday.

Latest guidance keeps the longwave trough in the Western US through
the late week and into the weekend. Should this happen, plentiful
moisture will be able to return from the Pacific and the Gulf which
would lead the way to a potentially prolonged precipitation event
beginning Thursday night and could result in accumulating snow for a
portion of the combined Panhandles. Although there is relatively
good agreement in precipitation occurring late this work week, this
forecaster is hesitant to believe the very slow progression of the
trough at this time.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

VFR conditions is currently forecast through the next 24 hours.
Winds will become light late this afternoon and turn easterly
tonight. Winds will turn southeasterly to southerly tomorrow
morning at around 5-10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

A potent weather system will impact the Panhandles beginning
Monday night but especially through the day on Tuesday. A dryline
will move east through Tuesday morning, and RH values will
rapidly dry in its wake. Winds will strengthen through Tuesday
morning and peak in the mid-afternoon hours. 25 to 35 mph
sustained southwesterly winds are expected across the Panhandles
with gusts between 45 to 55 mph. The western and northern combined
Panhandles are expected to be the windiest and therefore in the
higher end of the aforementioned ranges. In fact, the northwestern
combined Panhandles have a 40-70% chance to exceed 55 mph wind
gusts while the rest of the western half of the Panhandles have a
20-40% chance.

Expecting RFTIs of 5 to 7 to be widespread across the area. Given
the very dry to extremely dry fuels across the Panhandles, this
puts much of the western and central TX Panhandle in high-end
critical fire weather. Compounding these concerns is the presence
of a low-level thermal ridge across the central and eastern
combined Panhandles as 80 to nearly 90 degree high temperatures
across the central and eastern combined Panhandles.

Vanden Bosch


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                38  70  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  35  65  42  84 /  20   0   0   0
Boise City OK              32  67  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  38  72  47  87 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              38  74  49  83 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  38  72  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               39  67  45  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 32  70  43  76 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  34  67  43  80 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                37  74  46  83 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                38  65  45  85 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   38  68  45  85 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                39  66  43  88 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              40  67  43  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for TXZ001>020-317.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52